RGarg 20 Sept 2017 11 points

RGarg 11 points
20 Sept 2017

Draft ONLY for circulation amongst wellwisher friends , no political issues implied or imagined .
for brief comments ...ravigarg1@yahoo.com

1...Even I am seeing major signs of stalling /activity reduction in most sectors of indian economy , except in a few specific sectors where govt is spending borrowed money CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE FROM BORROWED CAPITAL .

2 ..There is the technology based huge huge reduction in employment that shall increase . The impact of tech may cause more of PERMANENT job loss , than we may have studied ... Between previous ten years say 2007 and next ten years say by 2027 , more than 50 percent full time and part time paid jobs shall melt away PERMANENTLY .. Jobs are being lost due automation and inventions in agriculture , mfg., mining , transportation , offices , banking , govt services , power production . (Yes limited jobs FOR LIMITED TIME are being created in roads rail infrastructure . ). Modi s govt has NOT caused this job loss due technology yet it seems Modi does not have a time bound strategy to manage this job loss.

3... The recession in the West shall increase and shall reduce demand in india export sector . In any case due govt servants sectors ridiculous high salaries and low productivity , India shall not catch up with Exporters in other countries .

4...China continues its ruthless exports thru immense subsidies , that shall trouble us further .

5... Russia due major devaluation is now a major agri exporter including wheat ! .. An opportunity worthy of immediate study .

6...Net negative impact from other developments in near future ...?wars that may consume our savings unproductively , repayment of huge loans guaranteed by Indian Govts -state and national , past and present , that are simply rolled forward currently or otherwise hidden in govt. statistics ,inflation is being masked due tinkering with figures that shall get exposed .

7... Govt is spending money in few sectors like defence procurement , show-off fast trains , farmer loan write-offs ; now all this is REVENUE EXPENDITURE with BORROWED CAPITAL ..The tax base to pay for all this is not going to come from new huge tax paying projects as none NONE are coming up .. Same time to pay for its egoistic extravagance modi govt is using gst etc that is really reducing the economic activity in a major way !

8...Whereas I like to be realistic about the future , at individual level I am not a prophet of doom ! Within above reality there are opportunities for businessmen and biz advisers amongst us .. some opportunities with a sense of social responsibility and some other opportunities with competitive smarts .Where are these opportunities ? Comment and contact RGarg via ravigarg1@yahoo.com

9...The 3 major devices that are creating hugely significant distortions in indian economy shall be permitted to continue by modi govt . These devices are extremely powerful , these devices can be managed if intelligently handled to jump start employment and economic growth very significantly .

10...Three specific Suggestions , 1 Fully tax away 100 % of asset price increases ie property ,shares , govt licences . 2 take away the inflation linked feature of salaries , income,pensions allowed to so called govt servants 3 interest rate for employment creating projects to be frozen at 0 percent . None of these 3 suggestions are my original , and all are tried and proven successful historically .

11...Roads rail infrastructure is being financed by borrowed capital that will not be recovered via such projects ( -not by current or future SAVINGS- ).. complex argument yet arguable coz govt does not create any report showing return on borrowed investment report . Also the building boom of show off roads flyovers malls in cities simply multiplies costs of services for the export economy .

RGarg 20 Sept 2017.